Most small businesses pick which government contracts to chase based on a gut feeling about the work. The ones who win consistently do something different: before they bid, they research the buyer. A few minutes spent understanding an agency — what it buys, who it buys from, and how it buys — turns a blind guess into an informed decision. Here's how to do it, using free public data.
Why researching the agency matters
A government contract isn't just a piece of work — it's a relationship with a specific buyer that has habits, preferences, and a history. Understanding that buyer tells you:
- Whether they actually buy what you sell — and how much.
- Who they tend to award to — a rotating set of small firms, or the same incumbent every time.
- What they typically pay — so you can price competitively and judge if the work is your size.
- Whether they favor small businesses — through set-asides — or run everything as full-and-open.
That's the difference between bidding contracts you can win and burning hours on ones that were never realistic. (For the full bid/no-bid framework, see how to know if you can win.)
The five things to learn about any agency before bidding
1. How much they spend in your category. Does this agency buy your type of work in real volume, or barely at all? An agency that spends millions a year in your line of work is a target; one that spends almost nothing isn't.
2. Who's been winning their contracts. Look at recent awards in your category. If a single vendor wins most of them, there's a strong incumbent. If awards are spread across many firms, it's an open field where a newcomer can compete. (What is an incumbent.)
3. What they typically pay. The middle of the range of recent award values tells you the contract size to expect — and whether it fits your capacity.
4. How much goes to small businesses. If the agency set-asides a large share of this work for small firms, it's a friendly buyer. If almost nothing is reserved, expect to compete with large primes. (Set-aside contracts explained.)
5. How often they buy. A buyer that awards this work frequently is a pipeline you can build a relationship with; a rare, one-off need is a long shot.
Where to find this information (all free)
- USAspending.gov — the official record of federal awards. Filter by the type of work (its NAICS code) and the agency to see who won, how much, and how often. This is the single best source for buyer research. (Who actually wins government contracts.)
- SAM.gov — where current open opportunities are posted, and where you see what an agency is buying right now. (SAM.gov registration guide.)
- The agency's own website — many publish forecasts of upcoming needs, small-business contacts, and procurement information.
- The agency's small-business office. Most agencies have an Office of Small and Disadvantaged Business Utilization (OSDBU) whose job is literally to help small firms work with them. Reaching out is legitimate and encouraged.
Two patterns we see again and again in the award data
We built AskTuvo by ingesting public federal award records from USAspending.gov, and after looking at thousands of awards, the same two shapes show up over and over — and they should change how you bid:
- Open fields. In a lot of routine, recurring categories — janitorial, grounds maintenance, basic repairs — no single vendor dominates. The top winner might hold only a small slice of recent awards, a large share of winners are first-timers, and much of the work is reserved for small businesses. These are genuinely winnable for a newcomer. When the data looks like this, it's usually worth bidding.
- Locked-up fields. In other categories — often complex, technical work at a specific large agency — one incumbent has won the clear majority of recent awards, the same names repeat, and little is set aside. A newcomer bidding here is usually wasting time unless they hold a set-aside that excludes the incumbent or bring a real differentiator.
The striking part is how *different* two agencies can be for the very same service. One agency's spending in your category can be an open field while another's is sewn up by an incumbent. That's exactly why you research the specific buyer, not just the type of work — and it's the whole reason award data is worth reading before you commit.
Turning research into action
Once you understand a buyer, you can act with intent:
- Target the right agencies. Focus your registration, outreach, and bidding on the agencies that actually buy your service in volume — not random ones.
- Reach out before the bid. Contact the agency's small-business office, introduce your firm, and share a capability statement. Being a known quantity helps.
- Watch their pipeline. If an agency buys your work regularly, set yourself up to catch every relevant posting so you never miss one. (Never miss a deadline.)
- Price from evidence. Use the typical award values you found to bid competitively instead of guessing.
The honest limits of agency research
Public data shows patterns, not certainties:
- It reflects history — a longtime incumbent can still lose, and a quiet agency can suddenly get busy after a budget change.
- It won't reveal the exact evaluation criteria of a specific solicitation — always read the actual document. (How to read a government RFP.)
- Award data can lag, so the most recent weeks may be incomplete.
Use research to choose where to compete and avoid clear dead ends. The solicitation and your own capabilities decide the rest.
The bottom line
Researching an agency before you bid is one of the highest-return habits in government contracting, and almost no small business does it. A few minutes on free public data tells you whether a buyer actually purchases your service, who you'd be up against, what they pay, and whether they favor small firms. That turns bidding from a lottery into a strategy — and it's exactly the kind of buyer intelligence that separates the firms that win from the ones that keep losing.
Frequently asked questions
How do I find out what a government agency buys?
Search USAspending.gov and filter by the type of work (NAICS code) and the agency. You'll see what they've awarded, to whom, for how much, and how often — a clear picture of what they actually buy.
Can I contact a government agency before bidding?
Yes. Reaching out to an agency's small-business office (OSDBU) to introduce your firm and share a capability statement is legitimate and encouraged. It's part of how relationships and awareness are built.
What's the best free tool for researching government buyers?
USAspending.gov for award history (who wins, how much, how often) and SAM.gov for current opportunities. Together they cover both the history and the present.
How much research is enough before bidding?
Enough to answer five questions: does this agency buy my service, who's winning it, what do they pay, how much goes to small business, and how often do they buy. A few minutes per opportunity is usually plenty to make a confident bid/no-bid call.